The world-famous Kentucky Derby is described as 'the most exciting two minutes in sports' but while there may be a touch of exaggeration to that statement, there is certainly a different feel to the race which will be staged at Churchill Downs on Saturday. A trio of horses - Always Dreaming, Classic Empire and Irish War Cry - are considered to be the favourites to prevail over the 2km distance and they will inevitably receive the most consideration when you are debating who to bet on and how to place your bet. However, attention will justifiably be focused on one horse who will be featuring in the race against the odds.
© Velo Steve
Patch - who can be backed at anything between 25/1 and 40/1 - will become the first one-eyed horse to compete in the Louisville spectacular and rather than being seen as a novelty act, he possesses some form heading into the race. Albeit inexperienced, with his first race not coming until as recently as January, Patch claimed second position in last month's Louisiana Derby and some punters may see the Todd Pletcher-trained horse as a genuine outside bet rather than placing money on the three-year-old for the sheer sake of it. He has just two races under his belt, but Pletcher has spoken highly of the colt who finished second to 16-1 shot Girvin in Louisiana.
Professional, unfazed and remarkable are some of the words which have been used to describe Patch, who was forced to have his left eye removed last year due to inflammation. However, all those associated with Patch have moved to try to turn the unfortunate circumstances into some kind of positive and they will naturally anticipate one of the great sporting fairytales when he goes into his stall on Saturday. The formbook suggests that there are more capable horses than Patch but given the relatively short distance, anything is possible.
© Ken Lund
As it stands, the bookmakers are struggling to separate Always Dreaming - another of Pletcher's contingent - and Classic Empire. The former has raced in March and April, and on both occasions he emerged victorious. The most notable statistic coming from those displays is the improvement of six seconds in his last race, so there is every indication that he is a progressive type who is currently on the rise. As for Classic Empire, he only finished third behind fellow contender Irish War Cry over a slightly shorter distance back in February, but he returned to winning ways in Arkansas during the middle of April.
There is plenty of value to be had further down the listings with another eight horses all priced up at 20/1 and under, but there is perhaps more logic in taking a look at the odds of the last three winners of this event. All went off at low odds, with the biggest priced winner of the last four races being 12/1, with only four horses being placed lower than those odds this time around. That said, 2011 winner Animal Kingdom went off at 21/1 and won by nearly three lengths so it is no certainty that this weekend's victor will come from the higher-rated horses, much like English punters experience with the Grand National which was won by One for Arthur at 14/1 in April.
Can Patch cause a monumental upset, one which will echo through the horse racing fraternity? That remains to be seen but the so-called outsider should not be written off as Pletcher looks to engrave his name into sporting folklore.
