Mercedes uncertainty could shake up 2026 driver market

Speculation is increasing that Mercedes’ delay in confirming its 2026 lineup may have knock-on effects across the Formula 1 grid.

Longtime Swiss correspondent Roger Benoit wrote in Blick that many observers are puzzled by Toto Wolff’s hesitation in sealing George Russell’s extension.

“Why is he hesitating with Russell?” Benoit asked, while noting that Wolff’s young protege Andrea Kimi Antonelli has “slumped” in his rookie campaign. “Is the pressure on the rookie actually greater than expected? A swap with (Carlos) Sainz at Mercedes partner Williams would make sense.

"Or will he ultimately be relegated to the new engine customer, Alpine?” Ralf Schumacher told Formel1.de he has heard similar whispers but doubts Wolff has stronger alternatives. “There’s no one on the market right now that you say, ‘We absolutely have to have that one,’” Ralf explained.

“Most of the top drivers are locked in. Besides, Toto Wolff doesn’t think much of Valtteri Bottas, for example. I’m sorry to say, but otherwise he would have kept him.

“So yes, that makes it difficult. I find the George Russell issue somewhat surprising. Perhaps there will be a twist, an explanation for the long wait. Mercedes should be happy to have him now, because there’s no alternative. They’ll have to wait another year and see how it goes.

“That said, I think Sainz is always available for Mercedes. There seem to be some clauses in his contract. If I were Mercedes, I’d give him a call right away.”

Meanwhile, Lewis Hamilton’s own future is uncertain, with the Briton set to be 41 by 2026 and enduring a tough first year at Ferrari. “I had said before the start of this year that things wouldn’t be easy for him at Ferrari,” Ralf told T-Online.

“But I didn’t expect him to struggle so much over such a long period. For him to spin twice at Zandvoort, shoot the car into the tyres, and then get a penalty for entering the pitlane too fast, with his experience, that shouldn’t happen to him.

As a team boss, I’d have less sympathy for that. “I really hope this is just a lapse in concentration, but if these things happen to him because he’s already pushing the car to the limit, that wouldn’t be a good sign.”

Hamilton admitted before the summer pause that he felt “useless,” and Ralf believes the comment was telling. “Despite all his typical theatrics, I believe Lewis is deeply affected by the situation.

"But when a driver gives up so publicly, it’s not exactly motivating for the team. It’s not for nothing that Fred Vasseur urged him to handle the situation a little more calmly. Looking at his statements, one gets the impression that he might actually retire if things continue like this.”