Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bangladesh win with a probability of 64.81%. A draw had a probability of 21.2% and a win for Maldives had a probability of 14.04%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bangladesh win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.64%) and 2-1 (9.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10%), while for a Maldives win it was 0-1 (5.21%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bangladesh would win this match.