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Copa Libertadores | Group Stage
May 13, 2021 at 11pm UK
Estadio José Amalfitani

Velez Sarsfield
3 - 1
LDU Quito

Almada (45'), Janson (69'), Mancuello (90+3')
Galdames (70'), Martin Lucero (72')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Zunino (78')
Julio (24'), Alcivar (76')
Piovi (87')

Preview: Velez Sarsfield vs. LDU Quito - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Copa Libertadores clash between Velez Sarsfield and LDU Quito, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Velez Sarsfield will hope to move into second place in Group G of the Copa Libertadores on Thursday when they host LDU Quito at Estadio Jose Amalfitani in Buenos Aires.

The Argentines are one point back of Los Blancos in the standings and will be looking for some payback after the Ecuadorians beat them earlier in the competition, 3-1 in Quito.


Match preview

Mauricio Pellegrino, now in charge of Velez Sarsfield, pictured in January 2019© Reuters

This is a critical match for El Fortin, who are making their first appearance in this tournament since 2014 and looking to make the most of this opportunity.

After losing their opening two matches, Mauricio Pellegrino and his side got back on track last week, beating Union La Calera 2-0.

Pellegrino had an illustrious playing career, winning La Liga three times, capturing the UEFA Cup with Valencia and winning the Intercontinental Cup among other things.

He also helped Velez Sarsfield win the Copa Libertadores trophy in 1994, their only triumph to date in this competition.

LDU Quito coach Pablo Repetto on December 02, 2021© Reuters

LDU are one of the most successful clubs in Ecuadorian football, winning 11 national titles and capturing their first Supercopa Ecuador in 2020.

Under manager Pablo Repetto they have shown they can compete with the big clubs in South America, beating out former three-time Copa champions Sao Paulo to make the knockout stage of this competition last season.

The Uruguayan coach has seen his side finish second in their group in 2019 and 2020, and he would love to make it beyond this stage for a third consecutive campaign.

After being five minutes away from earning a point against Flamengo in their last match, they will be keen to shake that off and put some distance between themselves and the Argentinians.

Velez Sarsfield Copa Libertadores form:
  • L
  • L
  • W

Velez Sarsfield form (all competitions):
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • W

LDU Quito Copa Libertadores form:
  • D
  • W
  • L

LDU Quito form (all competitions):
  • D
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • L



Team News

LDU Quito's Luis Amarilla celebrates scoring their second goal on May 4, 2021© Reuters

Pellegrino has been rotating his two goalkeepers so far this season, with Alexander Dominguez playing in most of their league games and Lucas Hoyos starting in all three matches in this competition.

Juan Martin Lucero is yet to find the back of the net in this competition, but he has netted four times in the Argentine Primera Division.

Quito striker Luis Amarilla has been in fine form for Los Blancos in league play, scoring in his last three games for the club.

He will hope to take some pressure off Cristian Martinez Borja and Billy Arce, who between them have scored five of the team's seven goals to this point of the competition.

Velez Sarsfield possible starting lineup:
Hoyos; Ortega, Abram, De Los Santos, Guidara; Caseres, Galdames, Janson; Almada, Bouzat, Lucero

LDU Quito possible starting lineup:
Gabbarini; Perlaza, Guerra, Corozo, Cruz; Piovi, Alcivar; Zunino, Arce, Munoz; Martinez Borja


SM words green background

We say: Velez Sarsfield 1-1 LDU Quito

The Argentinians will be expected to win at home, where they have won four of their last five matches in all competitions. Still, Quito have more recent experience in this tournament and should be more comfortable in this pressure situation.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Velez Sarsfield win with a probability of 43.83%. A win for LDU Quito had a probability of 31.86% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Velez Sarsfield win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.45%) and 2-0 (6.8%). The likeliest LDU Quito win was 1-2 (7.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.3%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Velez Sarsfield would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Velez Sarsfield vs LDU Quito

Velez Sarsfield
36.4%
Draw
36.4%
LDU Quito
27.3%
11
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