Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Racing de Montevideo win with a probability of 44.22%. A draw had a probability of 28.8% and a win for Cerro Largo had a probability of 26.94%.
The most likely scoreline for a Racing de Montevideo win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.02%) and 2-1 (8.22%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.1%), while for a Cerro Largo win it was 0-1 (10.45%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Racing de Montevideo in this match.