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SPAL logo
Serie A | Gameweek 35
Jul 22, 2020 at 8.45pm UK
Stadio Paolo Mazza
Roma logo

SPAL
1 - 6
Roma

Cerri (24')
Espeto (77')
Cionek (87')
FT(HT: 1-2)
Kalinic (10'), Perez (38'), Kolarov (47'), Peres (52', 75'), Zaniolo (90')

Preview: SPAL vs. Roma - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Serie A clash between SPAL and Roma, including team news and predicted lineups.

Roma will be aiming to consolidate their hold on fifth spot when they travel to already-relegated SPAL in Serie A on Wednesday evening.

In contrast, SPAL's relegation from the top flight has already been confirmed and the division's basement side have little to play for in the final couple of weeks.


Match preview

SPAL never looked likely to mount a late charge towards safety following the end of the enforced shutdown, and their three-year stint in Serie A has now come to an end with four games remaining.

Gli Spallini have now lost five games in succession - their most recent outing ending in a 2-1 defeat to fellow strugglers Brescia - and SPAL's fate was sealed as 17th-placed Genoa defeated Lecce 2-1 to extend their lead over SPAL to 14 points.

A slender victory over Parma just before the lockdown may have given Luigi Di Biagio a false sense of hope before the coronavirus pandemic wreaked havoc across the sporting calendar, but ultimately it was not to be for SPAL and Gli Spallini must pack their bags and prepare for an imminent return to Serie B.

SPAL have only managed to garner one point from a possible 24 since the restart - a hard-fought 2-2 draw with AC Milan - and Di Biagio's men have mustered just 24 league goals during the 2019-20 campaign.

Paulo Fonseca pictured as Roma boss in August 2019© Reuters

In contrast, Roma are still in a good position for a Europa League spot despite dropping two points in a 2-2 stalemate with Inter Milan last time out.

Paulo Fonseca will certainly take the positives from holding the title-chasing Nerazzurri to a draw, with Inter just about managing to rescue a point following Romelu Lukaku's 88th-minute penalty.

The result leaves Roma in fifth spot on 58 points - two above Napoli and AC Milan in the race for European football, and Fonseca's side have started to string a respectable set of results together following a three-game winless run in June.

I Giallorossi recorded successive victories over Parma, Brescia and Hellas Verona before the draw with Inter, although Roma will be naturally disappointed by their failure to mount a consistent charge for the top four heading into the final stretch.

Fonseca's men enjoyed a straightforward 3-1 victory over SPAL when the sides last locked horns back in December.

SPAL Serie A form: DLLLLL

Roma Serie A form: LLLWWW


Team News

Roma forward Nicolo Zaniolo pictured in November 2019© Reuters

SPAL will be without Mohamed Fares, Ervin Zukanovic and Etrit Berisha for the visit of Roma.

Gabriel Strefezza and Mattia Valoti are both pushing for starting roles having come off the bench in the defeat to Brescia.

As for Roma, Nicolo Zaniolo has suffered another injury setback and missed out the draw with Inter, and the midfielder is a doubt for this one with a calf problem.

Federico Fazio, Antonio Mirante and Juan Jesus are all expected to remain sidelined for a little while longer, while Davide Santon is also set to miss the midweek trip to SPAL.

Roger Ibanez recorded an assist against Inter before being replaced by Chris Smalling, but the Brazilian will not feature in this one owing to a muscular problem.

SPAL possible starting lineup:
Letica; Cionek, Vicari, Tomovic, Reca; Strefezza, Dabo, Missiroli, Valoti; Petagna, Floccari

Roma possible starting lineup:
Lopez; Smalling, Mancini, Kolarov; Zappacosta, Veretout, Cristante, Spinazzola; Pellegrini, Mkhitaryan; Dzeko


Sports Mole Logo

We say: SPAL 0-3 Roma

SPAL will no doubt want to try and end their season on a high note following an otherwise dismal campaign, but Roma are enjoying a strong spell of form and should record all three points against Serie A's basement side with little difficulty on Wednesday.



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Written by
Ben Knapton

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 62.37%. A draw had a probability of 20.4% and a win for SPAL had a probability of 17.22%.

The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 0-2 with a probability of 9.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.94%) and 0-1 (9.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.55%), while for a SPAL win it was 2-1 (4.76%). The actual scoreline of 1-6 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Roma would win this match.


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