South Africa will look to remain undefeated at the group stage of the COSAFA Cup when they host Lesotho on Tuesday at Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium in Port Elizabeth.
The Bafana Bafana edged Eswatini 1-0 earlier this week, while Likuena will hope to move into a top-two position in Group A after losing 4-0 to Botswana on Saturday.
Match preview
After three consecutive fifth-placed finishes in this competition on home soil, South Africa are hoping not to come up short once again.
They come into their third match of this tournament having won their opening two games, both 1-0, and they know that a win combined with a Zambia victory over Botswana would be enough to see them through to the semi-finals with one more group match to play.
Having gone without a trophy on the international stage since capturing this event in 2016, they will hope that this can be the year that they finally bump their slump.
They struggled to create a lot of quality scoring opportunities in their opening two matches, but they have been able to do enough to win both of their games thanks to a stingy back three, who have kept their opponents off the scoreboard in three of their five matches this year.
Having to play back-to-back fixtures to wrap up the group stage will be a lot to ask for the core of this team, so they will be eager to earn another victory on Tuesday and move a step closer into the final four of this tournament.
After making the semi-finals over their previous three campaigns, the ride has not been as smooth for Lesotho so far this time around.
This team were reduced to 10 men after only seven minutes in their opening match versus Eswatini, losing 3-1, and despite beating the defending champions Zambia 2-1 in their second match, they were beaten comprehensively by Botswana this past weekend.
If there is a silver lining for this side at the moment, it could be that they were able to win a game against a formidable opponent like Zambia and winning is something that has not come easily for this team.
Likuena have won only one of their last 14 matches, going back to early September 2019, and they have gone goalless in seven of those games.
Lesotho will be a desperate team when they take to the field on Tuesday, and we should not expect to see fear in this team going up against South Africa, as they have beaten the Bafana Bafana two consecutive times, scoring three goals in each game.
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Team News
The five South African goals scored so far this year have come from four different players, including midfielder Kagiso Malinga, who scored the winner in their opening game against Botswana, while Thabang Sibanyoni notched the only goal versus Eswatini.
South Africa have rotated their back three for both of their games so far, with Rushine De Reuck starting both fixtures, while Sibanyoni and Nyiko Mobbie started in defence in their opener and then Mashweu Mphahlele and Austin Dube started in their place in game number two.
Goalkeeper Veli Mothwa has been solid when called upon in this tournament, maintaining two clean sheets after Ronwen Williams conceded twice in their final tune-up match before this competition in a 3-2 win over Uganda.
Sera Motebang provided a significant spark for his side in their second match of this tournament, scoring twice in just over 20 minutes to erase a 1-0 Zambian lead.
Centre-back Nkau Lerotholi is an experienced defender with over 60 caps for his country, and he is usually complemented by Basia Makepe, who has made over 40 appearances.
Masoabi Nkoto has struggled to get quality service as the lone striker upfront and he is without a goal since November 2019, when he scored in a 4-2 defeat to Nigeria.
South Africa possible starting lineup:
Mothwa; Mphahlele, De Reuck, Sibanyoni; Malinga; Mobbie, Maart, Phohlongo, Sithebe; Mkhulise, Brooks
Lesotho possible starting lineup:
Mphuthi; Sello, Lerotholi, Makepe, Malane; Toloane, Lebokollane; Makha, Fothoane, Khutlang; Nkoto
We say: South Africa 1-0 Lesotho
Offensively, the Bafana Bafana are a far cry from the squad that were among the elite teams in Africa in the 90s, but they should have enough to get by a Lesotho team who do not have a lot of depth or consistency.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a South Africa win with a probability of 58.59%. A draw had a probability of 23.9% and a win for Lesotho had a probability of 17.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a South Africa win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.85%) and 2-1 (9.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.2%), while for a Lesotho win it was 0-1 (6.63%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that South Africa would win this match.
