Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cesena win with a probability of 51.16%. A draw had a probability of 25.73% and a win for Mantova had a probability of 23.11%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cesena win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.93%) and 2-1 (9.32%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.15%) , while for a Mantova win it was 0-1 (7.92%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood.