Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Valladolid win with a probability of 66.19%. A draw had a probability of 20.5% and a win for Lugo had a probability of 13.28%.

The most likely scoreline for a Real Valladolid win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.81%) and 2-1 (9.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.71%), while for a Lugo win it was 0-1 (4.92%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Real Valladolid would win this match.

Result
Real Valladolid	Draw	Lugo
66.19%	20.52%	13.28%

Both teams to score 45.32%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

51.12%

48.88%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29.03%

70.97%

Real Valladolid Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

86.09%

13.91%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

58.65%

41.35%

Lugo Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

52.64%

47.35%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

17.25%

82.75%

Score Analysis

Real Valladolid 66.18%

Lugo 13.28%

Draw 20.53%

Real Valladolid	Draw	Lugo
1-0 @ 12.99% 2-0 @ 12.81% 2-1 @ 9.58% 3-0 @ 8.43% 3-1 @ 6.3% 4-0 @ 4.16% 4-1 @ 3.11% 3-2 @ 2.35% 5-0 @ 1.64% 5-1 @ 1.23% 4-2 @ 1.16% Other @ 2.44% Total : 66.18%	1-1 @ 9.71% 0-0 @ 6.59% 2-2 @ 3.58% Other @ 0.64% Total : 20.53%	0-1 @ 4.92% 1-2 @ 3.63% 0-2 @ 1.84% 1-3 @ 0.91% Other @ 1.98% Total : 13.28%