Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Eibar win with a probability of 44.54%. A draw had a probability of 28.6% and a win for Real Zaragoza had a probability of 26.89%.
The most likely scoreline for a Eibar win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.03%) and 2-1 (8.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.06%), while for a Real Zaragoza win it was 0-1 (10.25%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Eibar would win this match.