Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Amorebieta win with a probability of 41.45%. A win for Racing Club de Ferrol had a probability of 30.41% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Amorebieta win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.29%) and 2-0 (7.98%). The likeliest Racing Club de Ferrol win was 0-1 (10.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.13%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Amorebieta would win this match.