Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Dundee win with a probability of 49.93%. A win for Ayr United had a probability of 26.18% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Dundee win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.58%) and 2-0 (8.19%). The likeliest Ayr United win was 1-2 (6.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.23%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Dundee would win this match.