Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Al-Nassr win with a probability of 47.72%. A win for Al Shabab had a probability of 28.47% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.

The most likely scoreline for an Al-Nassr win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.75%) and 2-0 (7.46%). The likeliest Al Shabab win was 1-2 (7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.07%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Al-Nassr would win this match.

Result
Al-Nassr	Draw	Al Shabab
47.72% ( 0.4)	23.81% ( -0.09)	28.47% ( -0.3)

Both teams to score 58.72% (

0.1)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

56.99% (

0.23)

43.02% (

-0.22)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

34.59% (

0.23)

65.42% (

-0.22)

Al-Nassr Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.81% (

0.25)

18.2% (

-0.24)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.8% (

0.42)

49.2% (

-0.41)

Al Shabab Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.78% (

-0.09)

28.22% (

0.1)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

36.08% (

-0.12)

63.93% (

0.12)

Score Analysis

Al-Nassr 47.72%

Al Shabab 28.47%

Draw 23.81%

Al-Nassr	Draw	Al Shabab
2-1 @ 9.43% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 8.75% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 7.46% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 5.36% ( 0.06) 3-0 @ 4.24% ( 0.06) 3-2 @ 3.39% ( 0.03) 4-1 @ 2.28% ( 0.04) 4-0 @ 1.8% ( 0.04) 4-2 @ 1.44% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.57% Total : 47.72%	1-1 @ 11.07% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 5.97% ( 0) 0-0 @ 5.14% ( -0.05) 3-3 @ 1.43% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.21% Total : 23.81%	1-2 @ 7% ( -0.05) 0-1 @ 6.5% ( -0.08) 0-2 @ 4.11% ( -0.06) 1-3 @ 2.95% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 2.52% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.73% ( -0.03) 1-4 @ 0.93% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.73% Total : 28.47%