Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Red Star Belgrade win with a probability of 53.54%. A win for Red Bull Salzburg had a probability of 26.08% and a draw had a probability of 20.43%.
The most likely scoreline for a Red Star Belgrade win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (6.81%) and 0-1 (6%). The likeliest Red Bull Salzburg win was 2-1 (6.36%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.01%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood.