Scottish Challenge Cup | Third Round

Nov 15, 2022 at 7.45pm UK

East End Park

Dunfermline
2 - 1
Celtic Res.

Sutherland (3'), Todorov (25')

FT(HT: 2-1)

Kenny (36')

Coverage of the Scottish Challenge Cup Third Round clash between Dunfermline Athletic and Celtic Reserves.

Form, Standings, Stats

Dunfermline Athletic

All competitions

Last Game: Dunfermline 2-2 Clyde
Saturday, November 12 at 3pm in Scottish League One

Goals
for

Celtic Reserves

All competitions

Last Game: Celtic Res. 3-0 Livingston U21s
Wednesday, August 24 at 7.45pm in Scottish Challenge Cup

	Team	Goals scored	Avg per game	Top scorer
1	Alloa	30	2.00	Rodden
2	Airdrieonians	27	1.80	Jamieson
3	Falkirk	27	1.80	Alegria
4	Edinburgh	25	1.67	Handling
5	Montrose	25	1.67	Wright
6	QotS	24	1.60	Paton
7	Dunfermline	22	1.47	Todorov
8	Clyde	18	1.20	Allan
9	Kelty Hearts	14	0.93	Agyeman
10	Peterhead	10	0.67	Gillies

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Dunfermline Athletic win with a probability of 44.53%. A win for Celtic Reserves had a probability of 31.23% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Dunfermline Athletic win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.51%) and 2-0 (6.92%). The likeliest Celtic Reserves win was 1-2 (7.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.27%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Dunfermline Athletic in this match.

Result
Dunfermline Athletic	Draw	Celtic Reserves
44.53% ( -0.49)	24.23% ( -0.3)	31.23% ( 0.78)

Both teams to score 58.95% (

1.43)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

56.54% (

1.7)

43.46% (

-1.7)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

34.14% (

1.65)

65.85% (

-1.65)

Dunfermline Athletic Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.31% (

0.48)

19.68% (

-0.48)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

48.32% (

0.78)

51.68% (

-0.78)

Celtic Reserves Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.39% (

1.35)

26.6% (

-1.35)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.17% (

1.75)

61.83% (

-1.76)

Score Analysis

Dunfermline Athletic 44.53%

Celtic Reserves 31.23%

Draw 24.23%

Dunfermline Athletic	Draw	Celtic Reserves
2-1 @ 9.16% ( -0.05) 1-0 @ 8.51% ( -0.51) 2-0 @ 6.92% ( -0.31) 3-1 @ 4.96% ( 0.05) 3-0 @ 3.75% ( -0.11) 3-2 @ 3.29% ( 0.15) 4-1 @ 2.02% ( 0.05) 4-0 @ 1.52% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 1.34% ( 0.08) Other @ 3.08% Total : 44.53%	1-1 @ 11.27% ( -0.23) 2-2 @ 6.06% ( 0.19) 0-0 @ 5.24% ( -0.4) 3-3 @ 1.45% ( 0.12) Other @ 0.21% Total : 24.23%	1-2 @ 7.46% ( 0.13) 0-1 @ 6.93% ( -0.25) 0-2 @ 4.59% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 3.29% ( 0.18) 2-3 @ 2.68% ( 0.18) 0-3 @ 2.03% ( 0.08) 1-4 @ 1.09% ( 0.1) Other @ 3.16% Total : 31.23%