Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Al-Rayyan win with a probability of 44.26%. A win for Umm Salal had a probability of 31.86% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Al-Rayyan win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.97%) and 0-2 (6.62%). The likeliest Umm Salal win was 2-1 (7.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.96%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Al-Rayyan would win this match.