Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NK Varazdin win with a probability of 41.9%. A win for Gorica had a probability of 30.8% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a NK Varazdin win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.58%) and 0-2 (7.8%). The likeliest Gorica win was 1-0 (9.71%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.91%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood.