Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NK Varazdin win with a probability of 42%. A win for NK Istra 1961 had a probability of 30.44% and a draw had a probability of 27.56%.
The most likely scoreline for a NK Varazdin win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.49%) and 2-0 (7.93%). The likeliest NK Istra 1961 win was 0-1 (9.92%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.97%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood.