Benevento take on AC Milan in Serie A on Sunday, with the visitors looking to remain ahead of their city rivals at the top of the table.
The hosts, meanwhile, are enjoying a fine return to Italy's top flight after amassing 18 points from 14 games to occupy a top-half position.
Match preview
© Reuters
After winning Serie B last season, few would have expected Benevento to re-adjust to Serie A with such aplomb after more than a third of the campaign.
The Sorcerers have only ever competed in Serie A once in their entire history, finishing bottom in the 2017-18 campaign. However, former Milan legend Filipo Inzaghi has instilled real belief throughout the club, with Serie A survival for the first time looking a strong possibility this season.
They rounded 2020 off in style with two successive league wins, with Gianluca Caprari and Gaetano Letizia both scoring in a 2-0 win at Udinese prior to Christmas.
Inzaghi will be looking to ensure his players continue to believe in their ability when his former club and the current league leaders roll into town on Sunday.
© Reuters
There is little doubting that Benevento are in for a serious game against Milan, who are playing their best football since last winning Serie A in the 2010-11 campaign.
It remains to be seen whether the Rossoneri can handle the pressure of a title challenge under Stefano Pioli, though, especially with city rivals Inter Milan breathing down their necks just one point behind them.
Milan overcame a slight blip prior to Christmas when drawing two consecutive matches against two sides in the bottom five by beating Champions League qualification hopefuls Sassuolo and Lazio. The latter was a thrilling 3-2 victory, with Theo Hernandez's last minute winner earning a crucial three points ahead of the winter break.
Pioli will be guarding his players against any form of complacency as they look to retain their unbeaten domestic record ahead of the trip to Benevento, especially with the Serie A newcomers enjoying an excellent start to the season themselves.
Benevento Serie A form: DDLDWW
AC Milan Serie A form: WWDDWW
AC Milan form (all competitions): WWDDWW
Team News
© Reuters
Benevento are without central defenders Luca Caldirola and Massimo Volta due to injury.
Inzaghi is unlikely to waver from the 4-3-2-1 system which has brought his side so much success under his tutelage.
Milan, meanwhile, are likely to remain without the services of top goalscorer Zlatan Ibrahimovic due to a calf injury, but the club do expect him to return at some point in January.
Samu Castillejo, Matteo Gabbia, Ismael Bennacer and Alexis Saelemaekers are also ruled out of the trip to Benevento due to injury.
Benevento possible starting lineup:
Montipo; Letizia, Tula, Glik, Barba; Schiattarella, Ionita, Improta; Insigne, Caprari; Lapadula
AC Milan possible starting lineup:
Donnarumma; Calabria, Kalulu, Romagnoli, Hernandez; Tonali, Krunic; Diaz, Calhanoglu, Rebic; Leao
We say: Benevento 1-2 AC Milan
We can envisage a tight Milan victory, with former club legend Inzaghi's plucky Benevento side pushing them all of the way.
Ultimately, though, even potentially without Ibrahimovic, Milan should have a little too much offensive quality for them to deal with.
Top betting tip
Brett Curtis
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 57.93%. A draw had a probability of 21.4% and a win for Benevento had a probability of 20.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.84%) and 0-1 (8.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.85%), while for a Benevento win it was 2-1 (5.51%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.
