New York City FC travel to Subaru Park on Thursday to face Philadelphia Union in the Eastern Conference MLS, with both teams currently sitting in a playoff final series spot.
The hosts have played one more game than this week's opponents, but New York City have earned three more points than Union in their first 18 fixtures.
Match preview
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Jim Curtin's side enter their game against New York City after disappointment in their first leg of the CONCACAF Champions League semi-final, when they faced Mexican outfit Club America.
On Friday, Club America dominated possession against Philadelphia, who fell to defeat by allowing a first-half strike from Richard Sanchez and a late penalty from Emmanuel Aguilera.
That game also proved to be costly as right-back Olivier Mbaizo was forced off after 34 minutes due to picking up an injury, and he will be a big miss for the home side on Thursday, having featured in every MLS game so far this season.
Philadelphia's last outing in the league came against Eastern Conference leaders New England Revolution, and despite having more shots on target, Curtin's side lost that game 2-1.
Union have the joint-second best defensive record in the Eastern MLS so far this campaign, conceding 19 goals in as many matches, and that stat has helped the team's league position as they are the lowest scorers out of the top seven.
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New York City are currently on a six-game unbeaten run in the MLS, which continued last time out when Ronny Deila's side were triumphant against Inter Miami.
Top goalscorer Valentin Castellanos sealed the game at the Red Bull Arena before half time, completing his brace with a penalty just before the break.
The home side did not manage to get many of their shots on target, but they were efficient with the ones that did go directly at Nick Marsman's goal, scoring two of the three shots they had on target.
That victory would boost the morale within the New York City camp after the side were knocked out of the Leagues Cup in the game prior to the Inter Miami fixture, and the three points gained on Sunday means that Deila's side remain within touching distance of New England with two games in hand on the table toppers.
New York City have already travelled to face Philadelphia once before this season, when the away side came out 2-0 winners courtesy of strikes from Jesus Medina and Castellanos.
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Team News
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Both Anthony Fontana and Jack De Vries have been absent from Philadelphia's side in recent weeks due to concussion, but the pair of midfielders are expected to make their returns to action in the middle of this month.
Defender Alvas Powell has been sidelined since the end of July with a hamstring injury, but he did return to the field for Philadelphia in their last outing against Club America, replacing Mbaizo in the first half of that game.
With Mbaizo picking up an injury in that game, Powell is expected to come into the starting lineup on Thursday, alongside Jack Elliott, Jakob Glesnes and Kai Wagner in the back four.
New York City's Heber and Gedion Zelalem will continue to be absent from the squad while they recover from injury, and Deila could name the same starting 11 which defeated Inter Miami last time out.
Striker Castellanos is sure to lead the line for the away side, as he has already surpassed the six goals that he managed last season and has provided more assists for his teammates.
Philadelphia Union possible starting lineup:
Blake; Wagner, Glesnes, Elliott, Powell; Martinez; Flach, Bedoya; Gazdag; Sanots, Przybylko
New York City FC possible starting lineup:
Johnson; Amundsen, Sands, Chanot, Tinnerholm; Parks, Morales; Thiago, Moralez, Tajouri-Shradi; Castellanos
We say: Philadelphia Union 1-2 New York City FC
New York City will be looking to emulate their victory which they earned at Subaru Park in May, and they will be confident about doing so having put together a positive string of results.
Castellanos is in good form, being involved in four goals in his last two matches, and he will pose a big threat to the Philadelphia defence, which has conceded four goals in their previous two games.
Top tip
Sammy Wynne
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Philadelphia Union win with a probability of 39.23%. A win for New York City FC had a probability of 34.7% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Philadelphia Union win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.51%) and 2-0 (6.67%). The likeliest New York City FC win was 0-1 (9.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.39%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Philadelphia Union in this match.
