Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Morocco Under-23s win with a probability of 42.46%. A win for Iraq Under-23s had a probability of 32.21% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Morocco Under-23s win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.93%) and 2-0 (7.06%). The likeliest Iraq Under-23s win was 0-1 (8.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.98%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Morocco Under-23s would win this match.