Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hereford United win with a probability of 52.18%. A draw had a probability of 27.3% and a win for Curzon Ashton had a probability of 20.51%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hereford United win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.21%) and 2-1 (8.67%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.27%), while for a Curzon Ashton win it was 0-1 (8.69%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Hereford United would win this match.