Africa Cup of Nations

Africa Cup of Nations | Group Stage

Dec 26, 2025 at 8pm UK

Morocco
1 - 1
Mali

Diaz (45+5' pen.)
Aguerd (52')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Sinayoko (64' pen.)
Camara (22'), Diaby (45+4'), Doumbia (49'), Doumbia (50'), Coulibaly (51'), Sinayoko (63'), Diarra (82'), Dorgeles (90+7')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Africa Cup of Nations clash between Morocco and Mali, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Morocco

All competitions

This competition

Last Game: Morocco 1-1 Mali
Friday, December 26 at 8pm in Africa Cup of Nations

Next Game: Zambia vs. Morocco
Monday, December 29 at 7pm in Africa Cup of Nations

Current Group F Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Morocco	3	4	7
2	Congo DR	3	0	3
3	Zambia	3	-1	2
4	Tanzania	3	-3	2

Mali

All competitions

This competition

Last Game: Morocco 1-1 Mali
Friday, December 26 at 8pm in Africa Cup of Nations

Next Game: Comoros vs. Mali
Monday, December 29 at 7pm in Africa Cup of Nations

Current Group E Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Mali	3	2	5
2	South Africa	3	2	4
3	Namibia	3	-3	4
4	Tunisia	3	-1	2

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Morocco win with a probability of 60.8%. A draw had a probability of 24.61% and a win for Mali had a probability of 14.59%.

The most likely scoreline for a Morocco win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.66%) and 2-1 (8.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.87%) , while for a Mali win it was 0-1 (6.78%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood.

Result
Morocco	Draw	Mali
60.8% ( -0.43)	24.61% ( 0.35)	14.59% ( 0.08)

Both teams to score 37.7% (

-0.66)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

38.87% (

-1)

61.13% (

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

18.91% (

-0.75)

81.09% (

0.75)

Morocco Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.9% (

-0.56)

20.1% (

0.56)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

47.65% (

-0.9)

52.35% (

0.9)

Mali Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

47.19% (

-0.49)

52.81% (

0.49)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

13.47% (

-0.32)

86.53% (

0.32)

Score Analysis

Morocco 60.79%

Mali 14.59%

Draw 24.6%

Morocco	Draw	Mali
1-0 @ 17.03% ( 0.34) 2-0 @ 13.66% ( 0.04) 2-1 @ 8.72% ( -0.1) 3-0 @ 7.31% ( -0.11) 3-1 @ 4.67% ( -0.14) 4-0 @ 2.93% ( -0.09) 4-1 @ 1.87% ( -0.09) 3-2 @ 1.49% ( -0.07) 5-0 @ 0.94% ( -0.05) Other @ 2.17% Total : 60.79%	1-1 @ 10.87% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 10.61% ( 0.39) 2-2 @ 2.78% ( -0.08) Other @ 0.34% Total : 24.6%	0-1 @ 6.78% ( 0.15) 1-2 @ 3.47% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 2.16% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.18% Total : 14.59%