Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Morocco win with a probability of 60.8%. A draw had a probability of 24.61% and a win for Mali had a probability of 14.59%.
The most likely scoreline for a Morocco win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.66%) and 2-1 (8.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.87%) , while for a Mali win it was 0-1 (6.78%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood.