League One side Montrose welcome Brora Rangers to Angus on Saturday, as they get their Scottish League Cup campaign underway.
The Highland League visitors are long-shot outsiders in Group C, which also features top-flight Dundee, plus Forfar and Ross County.
Match preview
Late last month, Montrose welcomed supporters back to Links Park for the first time in well over a year, as they drew a friendly with Angus rivals Arbroath.
Before their fans' belated return, Stewart Petrie's men had not played in front of a home crowd since facing Stranraer in March 2020, so will be incredibly keen to impress their faithful followers with a win in their first competitive fixture of the 2020-21 season.
While their doors have remained closed for public health reasons, a reminder of the ongoing impact of COVID-19 on Scottish football arrived like an unwelcome guest earlier this week, when it was announced that upcoming League Cup opponents Ross County had suffered an outbreak of the virus in their camp.
Therefore, the Premiership side were forced to forfeit the three points to Forfar - perhaps one of Montrose's chief rivals to progress from the group phase.
Despite that early disadvantage, the Gable Endies have reason for optimism coming into the campaign, particularly as it has been confirmed that winger Blair Lyons - in his second spell at Montrose after returning on loan from Partick Thistle - will be available to Petrie this term.
An important creative outlet for the semi-professional team, Lyons set up their opening goal in that friendly with Arbroath and is expected to have a productive season for the club.
Meanwhile, for Brora Rangers, a hectic period of league and cup action is set to commence this weekend, after they were frustrated by the cancellation of pre-season matches due to COVID-19 outbreaks in opponents' squads.
They therefore start their season proper at Links Park, before taking on top-flight Dundee next Wednesday. The Cattachs will effectively have to use such competitive fixtures as a warm-up for their defence of the Highland League title, which kicks off later this month.
Manager Steven Mackay - in charge since 2018 - enjoyed perhaps his finest hour at Brora last season, as Hearts were felled by his team in an historic Scottish Cup second round shock.
In this competition last term, meanwhile, Brora drew with Cove Rangers and Forfar before twice losing on penalties, so with a little luck, can prove stubborn opponents despite their lowly status in the football pyramid.
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Team News
For their final pre-season game against Kelty Hearts, Montrose made five changes from the team that started their only other warm-up opportunity, versus Arbroath - giving valuable game time to several youth players in the process.
On Saturday, a more senior side should start, including second-half substitute Blair Lyons, who replaced Paul Watson at Kelty and made an immediate impact on the left flank.
Mark Whatley recently made his debut for the hosts against old club Arbroath - after a seven-year spell as the most successful captain in their Angus rivals' history - and the experienced midfielder is set to feature on Saturday. Up front, Martin Rennie - who went 30 appearances without a goal until finally breaking his drought in May - could start.
For Brora, meanwhile, their lack of matches in recent weeks means that they will be searching for fitness in this first run-out of the new campaign. In fact, the visitors have not played since losing out to Kelty Hearts in last season's promotion playoff semi-final.
Forward James Wallace was brought back to the club from Morton last week, so is likely to be handed an opportunity alongside fellow new recruit Josh Meekings, previously of Inverness Caley Thistle.
Montrose possible starting lineup:
Lennox; Ballantyne, Steeves, Allan, Waddell; Watson, Masson, Rennie, Lyons; Whatley, Rennie
Brora Rangers possible starting lineup:
Malin; Kelly, Williamson, Meekings, A. MacDonald; Mackinnon, Gillespie, MacLean, N. McDonald; MacRae, Wallace
We say: Montrose 3-1 Brora Rangers
Montrose have several factors in their favour - such as higher-level experience, home advantage and their opponents' shortage of playing time - so must be strong favourites to start with a straightforward win.
Fate has so far conspired against Brora, so they will just hope to keep things competitive, as they look to build towards their upcoming promotion challenge.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brora Rangers win with a probability of 53.98%. A win for Montrose had a probability of 26.01% and a draw had a probability of 20%.
The most likely scoreline for a Brora Rangers win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (6.63%) and 0-2 (5.65%). The likeliest Montrose win was 2-1 (5.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.71%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood.
