Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Valladolid win with a probability of 83.63%. A draw had a probability of 10.1% and a win for Astur had a probability of 6.28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Valladolid win was 0-3 with a probability of 8.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (8.01%) and 0-2 (7.67%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.14%), while for an Astur win it was 2-1 (1.9%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Real Valladolid would win this match.