Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sligo Rovers win with a probability of 52.19%. A draw had a probability of 25.2% and a win for Dundalk had a probability of 22.65%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sligo Rovers win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.94%) and 2-1 (9.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.92%), while for a Dundalk win it was 0-1 (7.51%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sligo Rovers would win this match.