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Brasileiro | Gameweek 29
Oct 30, 2021 at 11.15pm UK
Estadio Alfredo Jaconi
Bahia

Juventude
0 - 0
Bahia


Pacheco (84'), Mendes (88')
FT

Gilberto (90')

Preview: Juventude vs. Bahia - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Brasileiro clash between Juventude and Bahia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Currently occupying a place in the Campeonato Brasileiro drop zone, Juventude welcome fellow strugglers Bahia to Estadio Alfredo Jaconi on Saturday.

Needing three points to overtake their relegation rivals in the Serie A standings, Juve are without a win in six matches and are precariously placed as they seek to retain their top-flight status.


Match preview

Juventude's Elton celebrates with teammates after the match on June 27, 2021© Reuters

Following their promotion from Serie B earlier this year, Juventude have found the going tough at the elite level of Brazilian football, lingering around the lower reaches of the table for most of the 2021 season.

Their 3-2 loss at Gremio a fortnight ago saw them suffer a third defeat in five league fixtures, dropping the club from Caixas do Sul into the bottom four with time running out to save themselves ahead of the campaign's climax in December.

Last weekend, another basement battle - this time with 14th-placed Ceara - ended goalless despite a dominant performance by the Alviverde. That represented a frustrating start for new coach Jair Ventura, whose side had nearly two-thirds of the ball and rifled in some 26 attempts on goal - 18 of which hit the target.

After his predecessor Marquinhos Santos was dismissed having led Juve to just one victory in their previous 11 Serie A fixtures - only to take over at America Mineiro just hours later - Ventura stepped into the dugout at Estadio Alfredo Jaconi, where his new team's few successes have generally arrived.

All but one of their six Serie A wins have come on home soil so far this term, and they are within touching distance of their latest opponents in the standings, so will be desperate to add goals to their encouraging performance last Saturday.

Bahia's Luiz Otavio celebrates scoring their first goal on June 28, 2021© Reuters

In contrast to their hosts this weekend, Bahia have been enjoying some improved form in the Brasileiro, as they are now five games unbeaten since a 3-1 loss to Corinthians at the start of the month, when they were reduced to 10 men before the break.

New coach Guto Ferreira has been in charge during that time, and on Wednesday his new side picked up their latest point against the club he was sacked by back in August.

A 1-1 draw with Ceara keeps the Salvadorean side perched just above the relegation zone and also - due to the tightly-packed nature of the table - still in with a shout of a Copa Sudamericana place for next season.

Ferreira has certainly been working on defensive organisation at the Tricolor's training ground, as Bahia - who beat bottom side Chapecoense 3-0 on Sunday - had posted four consecutive clean sheets before Ceara finally managed to beat goalkeeper Danilo Fernandes in the second half at Arena Fonte Nova.

Former Chicago Fire and Sao Paulo striker Gilberto was on target again in midweek, and their 12-goal top scorer is an integral part of Bahia's play at the other end, which could make all the difference given their newfound rearguard resilience.

Juventude Brasileiro form:
  • D
  • L
  • D
  • L
  • L
  • D

Bahia Brasileiro form:
  • L
  • W
  • D
  • D
  • W
  • D



Team News

Chapecoense manager Jair Ventura on June 6, 2021© Reuters

Jair Ventura resisted the temptation to make major changes for his first game in charge of Juventude last week, and was rewarded for his faith in their 4-3-3 setup by a spirited display, despite having to settle for only one point.

Roberson came in for Paulinho up front against Ceara, but was replaced by his fellow centre-forward midway through the second half and could miss out on Saturday.

Nicolas Castillo (back) and Marcelo Carne (knee) are still unavailable due to injury, while Ricardo Bueno (muscular) is also a doubt, and ex-Bahia midfielder Elton is out for the rest of the season with a knee problem.

Bahia, meanwhile, still have Rossi sidelined due to a thigh strain, and young goalkeeper Matheus Teixeira is out with a knee injury until next month, so Danilo Fernandes continues between the posts.

Gilberto should start as the visitors' lone striker up front, with Juninho Capixaba and Rai Nascimento providing support from out wide.

However, should Guto Ferreira opt for a more attacking approach, former Wigan and Fulham forward Hugo Rodallega could make up a front two with the Tricolor's star striker instead.

Juventude possible starting lineup:
Friedrich; Macedo, Mendes, Forster, Santos; Castilho, Jadson, Dawhan; Vinicios, Paulinho, Chico

Bahia possible starting lineup:
Fernandes; Nino, Conti, Otavio, Bahia; Rai, Patrick, Mugni, Danielzinho, Capixaba; Gilberto


SM words green background

We say: Juventude 0-1 Bahia

There are unlikely to be many goals in store at Estadio Alfredo Jaconi this weekend, as neither Juventude nor their visitors are in a position to go all-out in attack.

As Bahia have been better at the back in recent weeks, they can pick up a precious away victory and inch further away from the relegation trapdoor at Juve's expense.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data



ID:468649:1false2false3false:QQ:: from db desktop :LenBod:collect9973:
Written by
Jonathan O'Shea

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Juventude win with a probability of 39.32%. A win for Bahia had a probability of 31.14% and a draw had a probability of 29.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Juventude win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.79%) and 2-1 (7.69%). The likeliest Bahia win was 0-1 (11.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.39%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 11.8% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Juventude vs Bahia

Juventude
16.7%
Draw
50.0%
Bahia
33.3%
6
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1Botafogo382310559293079
2PalmeirasPalmeiras38227960332773
3FlamengoFlamengo382010861421970
4FortalezaFortaleza381911853391468
5InternacionalInternacional381811953361765
6Sao Paulo381781353431059
7Corinthians381511125445956
8Bahia38158154949053
9Cruzeiro381410144341252
10Vasco da GamaVasco38148164356-1350
11Vitoria38138174552-747
12Atletico Mineiro381114134754-747
13Fluminense381210163339-646
14Gremio38129174450-645
15JuventudeJuventude381112154859-1145
16BragantinoBragantino381014144448-444
17Athletico ParanaenseAthletico PR38119184046-642
18CriciumaCriciuma38911184261-1938
19Atletico GoianienseAtletico GO3879222958-2930
20Cuiaba38612202949-2030


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