Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Avispa Fukuoka win with a probability of 39.82%. A win for Shimizu S-Pulse had a probability of 32% and a draw had a probability of 28.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an Avispa Fukuoka win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.13%) and 2-0 (7.56%). The likeliest Shimizu S-Pulse win was 0-1 (10.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.17%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Avispa Fukuoka would win this match.