Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Uganda win with a probability of 45.49%. A win for Bahrain had a probability of 28.4% and a draw had a probability of 26.14%.
The most likely scoreline for a Uganda win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.82%) and 2-0 (8.31%). The likeliest Bahrain win was 0-1 (7.97%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.83%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood.