Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Thailand win with a probability of 49.75%. A win for Turkmenistan had a probability of 25.67% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Thailand win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.54%) and 2-0 (8.64%). The likeliest Turkmenistan win was 0-1 (7.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.66%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Thailand in this match.