Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a France win with a probability of 66.26%. A draw had a probability of 24.1% and a win for South Africa had a probability of 9.61%.
The most likely scoreline for a France win was 1-0 with a probability of 21.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (16.8%) and 3-0 (8.86%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.43%), while for a South Africa win it was 0-1 (5.72%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that France would win this match.