Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Anguilla win with a probability of 46.08%. A win for Bahamas had a probability of 33.24% and a draw had a probability of 20.68%.
The most likely scoreline for a Anguilla win was 1-2 with a probability of 7.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (5.92%) and 0-2 (5.45%). The likeliest Bahamas win was 2-1 (6.82%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.63%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood.