Port Vale can inch their way closer to a promotion out of League Two when they head to Victoria Park in County Durham on Friday for a date with Hartlepool United.
Graeme Lee's side are winless in their last four domestic encounters, though they did manage a 1-1 draw versus first-place Forest Green last Saturday, while the Valiants are unbeaten in their previous eight league games after edging Oldham Athletic 3-2 over the weekend.
Match preview
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While it was only a point, Pool had to be feeling pretty good about the final scoreline against the league leaders, as they managed to level the match on their only effort to hit the target after going behind 15 minutes earlier.
That was the sixth consecutive time in which they had conceded the opening strike, though like last weekend, they have found ways to recover, drawing 2-2 with Mansfield Town at the end of March, despite going 2-0 down after 25 minutes.
As Lee mentioned following their previous encounter, his group invited more pressure than he would have liked, which is not the first time the 43-year-old has said that about his side's performance.
Their link-up play was disappointing against Forest Green, and Lee is calling on his squad to be sharper with their passes and movement against another strong unit in Port Vale.
Hartlepool were shut down by the Valiants in their previous encounter back in November, falling 2-0, producing only six shots, only one of which was on target.
Working hard while getting in the way of crosses and shots in your third of the field can sometimes be enough to earn you a result, which was the case for this team last Saturday.
They have not won a home game in quite some time, with their last one coming on February 15 in a 1-0 win over Tranmere Rovers, which was also the last time Monkey Hangers scored the opening goal in a domestic encounter.
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Vale were pushed hard by a pesky Oldham side this past weekend, but in the end, their quality shone through as they hung on to capture a fourth consecutive League Two victory.
Acting manager Andy Crosby was impressed with how his team pressed and attacked higher up the field in that encounter while doing a much better job at recovering second balls.
Those half time team talks from Crosby seem to be resonating well, as the Valiants have scored four second-half goals in their previous three matches, while failing to concede in the final 45 minutes since a 2-1 triumph over Bradford City back on March 19.
At the moment, Port Vale are clinging to third place, which would be good enough to earn promotion into League One, but Mansfield Town are close behind, just three points back with a game in hand.
As a whole, Crosby has admitted that his team have not always played an aggressive and fluid attacking style of football, but they have been able to win matches in a variety of different ways, which is crucial if you want to be near the top of the table at this stage of the season.
Port Vale have been involved in numerous tight matches where the margin for error was thin, particularly on the road where they have only suffered one defeat in 2022, winning their last three away games by a single goal.
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Team News
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Omar Bogle notched the equalizer for Hartlepool last weekend, his fifth of the campaign, with Tom Crawford collecting an assist on the play.
Their top goalscorer Luke Molyneux missed that match through injury, Bryn Morris started despite being hurt previously and Joe Grey, who hobbled off in their defeat to Salford City (2-0), came on as a second-half substitute, replacing Marcus Carver.
We saw several new faces in their starting 11 as Crawford, Morris, Carver and Gary Liddle all began the match versus Forest Green.
Jamie Proctor notched a first-half brace for Vale on Saturday to move into a tie for the team lead alongside Ben Garrity, though the winner came courtesy of Brad Walker, his first of the campaign.
Garrity and Tom Pett scored the only goals in their home victory against Hartlepool last year, with Walker and David Amoo collecting the assists.
In their previous road fixture, goalkeeper Aidan Stone stopped four shots to collect his first clean sheet away from home since a 0-0 draw against Leyton Orient on January 22.
Hartlepool United possible starting lineup:
Killip; Ferguson, Odusina, Liddle, Byrne, Sterry; Fletcher, Featherstone, Crawford; Bogle, Carver
Port Vale possible starting lineup:
Stone; Benning, Smith, Martin, Hall; Worrall, Charsley, Walker, Taylor; Proctor, Edmondson
We say: Hartlepool United 1-2 Port Vale
Hartlepool have fought their way back into several matches this season, showing an ability to compete against the top teams in League Two, but they lack that quality and consistency in the final third, which has enabled Port Vale to prevail in many encounters this season.
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Port Vale win with a probability of 43.16%. A win for Hartlepool United had a probability of 30.4% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Port Vale win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.84%) and 0-2 (7.78%). The likeliest Hartlepool United win was 1-0 (8.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.57%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Port Vale in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Port Vale.
