Basement club Greuther Furth will be looking to end their six-game winless run in the Bundesliga when they welcome Borussia Monchengladbach to the Stadion am Laubenweg on Saturday afternoon.
Furth have conceded 70 goals so far this season, the joint-most across Europe's top-five leagues along with French side Bordeaux, while Monchengladbach have the third-worst defensive record in the Bundesliga, conceding 52 goals so far this term.
Match preview
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Greuther Furth remain the only Bundesliga side yet to win on the road after 14 attempts this season, but they did manage to claim their second away point when they played out a goalless draw against Eintracht Frankfurt last weekend.
Solitary points, however, are not enough for Stefan Leitl's side if they wish to maintain their top-flight status. The Cloverleaves are still rooted to the foot of the table, 10 points behind Arminia Bielefeld in the relegation playoff position and 11 points adrift of Stuttgart who sit just outside the bottom three.
While their away form has been poor, Furth have shown signs of improvement on home soil since mid-December, losing only one of their last eight league games at the Stadion am Laubenweg.
The Cloverleaves head into Saturday's game having failed to win any of their 11 meetings against Monchengladbach, their longest winless run against any opponent.
With an immediate demotion back down to the second tier seemingly on the horizon, success this weekend is vital if they are to keep their slim hopes of survival alive.
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Borussia Monchengladbach's 2021-22 campaign has seen them looking over their shoulders instead of vying for a European place, but seven points accumulated in their last three games has at least helped them edge towards a top-half finish.
Back-to-back 2-0 victories against Hertha Berlin and VfL Bochum were followed by a 1-1 draw at home against Mainz 05 last weekend. Breel Embolo scored his third league goal in five matches, but his first-half strike was cancelled out in the 73rd minute by Mainz forward Karim Onisiwo, forcing both sides to share the spoils.
Adi Hutter's men currently sit 12th in the Bundesliga table with 34 points after 28 games, their lowest points tally in the last 11 years at this stage of the season. The Foals are eight points clear of the relegation zone and 10 points behind the European positions with six games remaining.
Monchengladbach have only won three of their 14 away games in the top flight this season, beating Bochum, Wolfsburg and the most surprising of all Bayern Munich, winning 2-1 against the league leaders in January.
The Foals should be confident of success on Saturday, considering that they cruised to a 4-0 home victory against Furth earlier this season.
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Team News
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Greuther Furth will be without Marco Meyerhofer (ankle), Jeremy Dudziak (Achilles), Marius Funk and Robin Kehr (both ACL) due to injury.
Midfielder Paul Seguin (calf) and centre-back Sebastian Griesbeck (illness) are both doubtful and will be assessed ahead of kickoff.
The potential absence of Seguin could see Tobias Raschl continue in centre-midfield alongside Max Christiansen and Timothy Tillman, while Nick Viergever and Maximilian Bauer are set to start in the heart of the defence if Griesbeck is not fit to feature.
As for Monchengladbach, Luca Netz remains sidelined with a muscle injury, while Jonas Hofmann and Tony Jantschke will be assessed ahead of kickoff after testing positive for COVID-19 last week.
Hutter is unlikely to make too many changes, if any, to his starting lineup, with Florian Neuhaus and Kouadio Kone set to start again in centre-midfield, while Embolo could be joined in attack by Alassane Plea and Lars Stindl.
Greuther Furth possible starting lineup:
Linde; Asta, Bauer, Viergever, Willems; Tillman, Raschl, Christiansen; Green; Leweling, Hrgota
Borussia Monchengladbach possible starting lineup:
Sommer; Ginter, Elvedi, Beyer; Lainer, Neuhaus, Kone, Bensebaini; Stindl, Plea; Embolo
We say: Greuther Furth 2-4 Borussia Monchengladbach
With two defensively vulnerable sides locking horns on Saturday, goals are to be expected at the Stadion am Laubenweg.
Although Furth will fancy their chances of finding the back of the net, having scored in eight of their last 10 matches, Monchengladbach are the favourites to come out on top and they should have enough firepower to outscore their opponents.
Top tip
Oliver Thomas
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Monchengladbach win with a probability of 46.55%. A win for Greuther Furth had a probability of 30.28% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Monchengladbach win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.53%) and 0-2 (6.66%). The likeliest Greuther Furth win was 2-1 (7.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.44%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Borussia Monchengladbach would win this match.
