Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PAOK win with a probability of 41.63%. A win for Asteras Tripolis had a probability of 31.09% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a PAOK win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.53%) and 0-2 (7.73%). The likeliest Asteras Tripolis win was 1-0 (9.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.89%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that PAOK would win this match.