Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Waterford United win with a probability of 47.88%. A win for Kerry had a probability of 28.75% and a draw had a probability of 23.37%.
The most likely scoreline for a Waterford United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.92%) and 2-0 (6.82%). The likeliest Kerry win was 1-2 (7.06%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.28%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood.