Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nomme Kalju win with a probability of 59.44%. A draw had a probability of 20.7% and a win for Tukums had a probability of 19.92%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nomme Kalju win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.03%) and 2-0 (8.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.35%) , while for a Tukums win it was 0-1 (5.32%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5% likelihood.