Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jong AZ win with a probability of 66.19%. A draw had a probability of 17.7% and a win for Jong Sparta had a probability of 16.16%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jong AZ win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.97%) and 3-1 (7.75%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.49%), while for a Jong Sparta win it was 1-2 (4.38%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Jong AZ would win this match.