Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Red Bull Salzburg win with a probability of 39.17%. A win for Freiburg had a probability of 37% and a draw had a probability of 23.83%.
The most likely scoreline for a Red Bull Salzburg win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.08%) and 0-2 (5.58%). The likeliest Freiburg win was 2-1 (8.25%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood.