Following two very different outcomes last week, shell-shocked Fiorentina welcome fellow strugglers Crotone to Stadio Artemio Franchi on Saturday evening.
La Viola's six-goal thrashing by Napoli was in stark contrast to an unexpected 4-1 win for Serie A's bottom side last weekend and the clubs are now separated by just six points.
Match preview
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Though Fiorentina have reached the halfway point of the 2020-21 campaign roughly in line with expectations - a victory this weekend would see them equal the points and wins tallies they had at the same stage of last season - it has so far been a tumultuous ride for the Tuscan outfit.
Having fired previous coach Beppe Iachini after a long winless run, hired former Italy boss Cesare Prandelli as their new manager, then staggeringly beaten Scudetto-holders Juventus 3-0 just before Christmas, the first half of the season has certainly been eventful.
Just when things appeared to be stabilising, however, in the space of four days Fiorentina were dumped out of the Coppa Italia and then smashed 6-0 in Naples.
Prandelli apologised to Viola fans after the game and criticised his charges for losing so heavily without even picking up a yellow card - perhaps a sign of timidity when under pressure. The experienced coach did add, in mitigation, that they had conceded six goals from just seven shots on target and it is true that their defence has been much-improved in recent weeks.
In fact, goals remain the chief problem for Fiorentina - even though Dusan Vlahovic has hit the net more regularly of late - as they have scored only 18 so far, averaging just a goal per game. Only Parma have less in the top flight, with 14.
When playing at the Franchi though, their form is far better - 13 of their 18 points have been won on home turf this term, so they can approach Saturday's encounter with a measure of confidence.
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Still bottom of the table on 12 points, Crotone nevertheless took a major step closer to their fellow rivals for Serie A salvation last weekend, by tearing up the form book to beat Benevento 4-1.
Star of the show for Giovanni Stroppa's side at Stadio Ezio Scida was Nigerian striker Simy, who has now scored 50 goals in Serie A and Serie B combined for Crotone - a remarkable 25% of his club's total league goals since 2016-17.
After a barren spell stretching back nearly a month, Simy struck twice against Benevento to further confirm his value to the Squali and will once again carry a significant threat to Fiorentina this time out.
Both he and his front-line partners Junior Messias and Emmanuel Riviere will be needed to contribute regularly in the second half of the campaign, as Crotone have leaked 41 league goals so far, at a frightening average of 2.27 a game.
As a result, they have suffered when venturing away from their Calabrian base - their last top-flight away win came back in April 2018 and they have earned the fewest points on the road this season, with two.
Few expect them to survive the drop and in the last 10 Serie A seasons only one team has avoided relegation with 12 or fewer points at the halfway stage - Crotone in 2016-17, with just nine.
Fiorentina Serie A form: DWDLWL
Fiorentina form (all competitions): WDLWLL
Crotone Serie A form: LWLLLW
Team News
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After experimenting with adding Jose Callejon to the attack, Fiorentina coach Cesare Prandelli may revert to using Franck Ribery as the main support for lone striker Dusan Vlahovic this week.
With a fully fit squad to choose from, Prandelli could select veteran Martin Caceres as a more solid option at wing-back given the six goals conceded last time out and is also expected to drop Callejon for Erick Pulgar or Borja Valero in order to bolster the midfield.
Crotone could be boosted by the possibility that injured pair Ahmed Benali and Luca Marrone will be fit for Saturday, with Luca Cigarini also back in contention to take a spot on the bench.
Winger Salvatore Molina has been ruled out until the end of next month with his thigh injury though, as coach Giovanni Stroppa most probably keeps faith in the 3-5-2 setup that fared so well versus Benevento.
That would mean Emmanuel Riviere keeping his place up front, in combination with the more established Simy-Junior pairing.
Fiorentina possible starting lineup:
Dragowski; Milenkovic, Pezzella, Igor; Caceres, Amrabat, Pulgar, Castrovilli, Biraghi; Ribery, Vlahovic
Crotone possible starting lineup:
Cordaz; Djidji, Golemic, Magallan; Rispoli, Zanellato, Vulic, Reca; Messias; Riviere, Simy
We say: Fiorentina 1-0 Crotone
Under pragmatic Prandelli, Fiorentina can come back from their freak defeat to Napoli with a defensive display more in keeping with the past few weeks.
Therefore, the Viola's superior home record - allied to Crotone's miserable return when on their travels - should inspire enough confidence to see them seal maximum points in Florence.
Top betting tip
Jonathan O'Shea
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 50.74%. A win for Crotone had a probability of 24.91% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.61%) and 2-0 (8.82%). The likeliest Crotone win was 0-1 (6.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.55%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fiorentina would win this match.
