How are the betting odds determined?

© Image by Frode from Pixabay

When you bet on sports at non GamStop bookmakers, you automatically have to deal with odds. These are also called odds. These odds indicate by which factor your stake will be multiplied once your bet is correct. Odds are determined by various factors and are important to you, because you naturally want to get the best possible payout for the bets you place.

Determine Non GamStop Bookmakers Odds Based on Probability Calculation

In order to determine which odds belong to which outcome, various data models are used to determine the probability of a certain outcome. A quote is therefore nothing more than a representation of the probability. For example, if the chance is 50%, then odds of 2.00 is included. The easiest way to calculate the associated probability is simply to divide 100(%) by the odd. Of course this also works the other way around. When you know the probability, you can divide 100(%) by 50(%) and you get 2.00. However, this does not yet take the bookmaker into account. Bookmakers are, of course, there to make a profit. If they calculated the odds this way, they wouldn't make a profit.

Why the odds always differ

To ensure that the bookmaker always wins over the longer term, they do not calculate completely as in the example above. A margin is built into the formula so that the bookmaker makes a profit. This margin may differ per competition. In lower and lesser-known competitions, the margin is often higher, because bookmakers do not want to be surprised by people who have information before the bookmakers themselves. Consider, for example, injuries of important players that have a major influence on the chances of a certain team.

To demonstrate this margin, we will work with the following example:

• Team A has a 70% chance of winning.
• There is a 20% chance of a tie.
• Team B has a 10% chance of winning.

This Is How the Non GamStop Bookmakers Make a Profit

The above example would mean that team A would get odds of 1.43. A tie would be odds of 5.00 and Team B would be odds of 10.00. As you may have noticed, you don't see this combination of odds very often. What the bookmaker does is adjust the odds slightly in their favor. For example, the odds become:

• Team A – 1.33
• Draw – 5.40
• Team B – 8.00

When you calculate this back, you will see that the odds belong to different percentages than we have mentioned. Team A has a potential payout associated with 74% chance, Team B has a potential payout associated with 12.5% ​​and a tie one associated with 18.5% chance. So in total you come to a 105% chance and so the bookmaker has built in a margin of 5%. So in this example there is so-called value on a tie. Because the actual chance of this happening is higher, so you're getting a better odds than you should.

By building in this margin of 5%, the non GamStop bookmaker ensures that a profit is made. For every €100 wagered on average, the bookmaker makes about €5 profit. This is regardless of the outcome of this individual match. By calculating such margins on every match, the bookmakers always know how to pull the longest straw over the longer term.

Book Balancing

Another way the bookmakers try to build in security for themselves is through book balancing. When a bookmaker sees that a lot is being bet on a team, there is a lot of risk for the bookmaker on this team. Because when this team wins, the bookmaker has to pay out more. What the bookmaker then does is decrease the odds of this team and increase the odds of the other outcomes. This puts value on the other outcomes and that can convince players to bet on the other outcomes. That way there will be a little more balance over the total number of bets. The risk for the bookmaker is therefore reduced by slightly adjusting the odds.

How Do You Take Advantage of This?

As you can see in the example, there is also an outcome that gets a higher odds from the bookmaker than would be the case with the odds, namely a draw. This is where you as a player can take advantage like the bookmakers do. If you continuously bet on the outcomes that have too high odds, this will work out in your favor in the longer term.

What Does It Mean When the Odds Are Negative?

Negative numbers are always frustrating because they indicate poor calculation, the harsh winter cold, and they indicate how far you are from zero! However, in sports betting world, they make a good impression! Negative odds refer to the preferred teams/players. The number itself indicates the amount you have to bet to win $100. Generally, you will need to bet more than $100 to win $100 when you bet on your favorite team/player. As you might have guessed, positive numbers are attached to the underdog, and they indicate the value you have to bet to win $100. In short, you have to pay more money on negative odds because your chances of winning are higher, while you can pay less money on positive odds because your chances of winning are lower.

Conclusion

If you want to get into the world of non GamStop betting, you must be able to understand and explain all kinds of odds well. However, fortunately, every sports betting site today has the possibility to switch between British, American and European odds easily.