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Turkish Super Lig | Gameweek 18
Dec 22, 2021 at 5pm UK
 

Karagumruk
1 - 1
Fenerbahce

Pesic (31')
Ugur (67')
Bekaroglu (37'), Erkin (38')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Ozil (40' pen.)
Kahveci (72')

Preview: Fatih Karagumruk vs. Fenerbahce - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Turkish Super Lig clash between Fatih Karagumruk and Fenerbahce, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Fenerbahce are aiming to climb into the top four in the Turkish Super Lig on Wednesday, when they face 10th-placed Fatih Karagumruk, who could draw level on points with their visitors this week.

Both sides are looking to improve their form with Karagumruk aiming to stop their current pattern of losing after a win, while Fenerbahce need to improve on their many draws in recent weeks.


Match preview

Fenerbahce's Mesut Ozil pictured on November 21, 2021© Reuters

Volkan Demirel's side have not won back-to-back games since the beginning of October, and after their last two victories in all competitions, Karagumruk have followed those results up with defeats.

The home team can change that this week after securing a 1-0 win over relegation-threatened Goztepe on Sunday, courtesy of a 76th-minute strike from Caner Erkin, the full-back's first goal for the club, after arriving in September from Fenerbahce.

Fatih Karagumruk went six games unbeaten on home soil at the beginning of this season, but they have lost their last two matches on their own patch and will need to bounce back from that if they are to climb up the Turkish Super Lig.

Those two defeats at home were against the current top two, but Wednesday's test is likely to be just as difficult with Fenerbahce striving to not only break into the top four but also catch up with Konyaspor in second place.

Vitor Pereira's side could have been two points closer to the top two but they only managed a 2-2 draw last time out against Besiktas, despite Fenerbahce taking the lead twice in that game through Mesut Ozil and Mergim Berisha.

Their defensive record is not as good as the teams around them in the league, although it is also not that much worse off, but Fenerbahce have now conceded five goals in their last two games and that is not the kind of form that will help them climb the table.

Wednesday's encounter is expected to bring together two teams which like to have the ball at their feet, with both sides averaging more than 50% of possession in each game they have played this season, Fatih Karagumruk with the highest average in the division.

Out of possession, Fenerbahce will look to press Fatih Karagumruk high up the pitch, having won the ball off their opponents in their final third nearly 100 times this campaign, while the hosts may sit off the visitors more when Fenerbahce have possession.

Fenerbahce came out on top when these two teams last met in February, when Mame Baba Thiam and Enner Valencia sealed a 2-1 win for Fenerbahce towards the end of last season.

Fatih Karagumruk Turkish Super Lig form:
  • D
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • W

Fatih Karagumruk form (all competitions):
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • W

Fenerbahce Turkish Super Lig form:
  • D
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • L
  • D

Fenerbahce form (all competitions):
  • L
  • D
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • D



Team News

Fenerbahce coach Vitor Pereira on November 25, 2021© Reuters

Fatih Karagumruk winger Kerim Frei will continue to be absent from the home team's squad, having been sidelined since the end of October due to injury.

Derrick Luckassen was shown a straight red card earlier this month against Konyaspor and he will continue to serve his suspension on Wednesday, with Ervin Zukanovic coming into the back four.

Aleksandar Pesic had started every game in the Super Lig for Fatih Karagumruk but he was missing from the squad last time out, but could come back into the team in place of Ahmed Musa.

Fenerbahce number one goalkeeper Altay Bayindir will still be absent from the away team's squad as he recovers from a shoulder injury with his return date expected this month, so, Berke Ozer will continue between the posts.

Ozil has now scored in two consecutive games and he will be keen to make that three on Wednesday, as he is sure to start and could line up alongside Diego Rossi behind Berisha up front.

Fatih Karagumruk possible starting lineup:
Viviano; Erkin, Zukanovic, Bekaroglu, Hedenstad; Bertolacci, Biglia, Ugur; Karamoh, Pesic, Salibur

Fenerbahce possible starting lineup:
Ozer; Novak, Kim, Aziz; Szalai, Zajc, Crespo, Osayi-Samuel; Ozil, Rossi; Berisha


SM words green background

We say: Fatih Karagumruk 1-2 Fenerbahce

Taking into consideration Fenerbahce's last two games and the way their defence has been broken, Fatih Karagumruk should be confident about getting on the scoresheet on Wednesday.

However, Fenerbahce are expected to take three points from this clash, as they have been in fine goalscoring form so they should out-score their hosts.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fenerbahce win with a probability of 43.86%. A win for Fatih Karagumruk had a probability of 30.65% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Fenerbahce win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.05%) and 0-2 (7.49%). The likeliest Fatih Karagumruk win was 1-0 (8.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.1%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Karagumruk vs Fenerbahce

Fatih Karagumruk
23.1%
Draw
11.5%
Fenerbahce
65.4%
26
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15KonyasporKonyaspor33812133447-1336
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17Fatih KaragumrukKaragumruk3389163742-533
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