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FA Cup | Extra Preliminary Round Replays
Aug 13, 2024 at 8pm UK
Cricklefield Stadium

Ilford
0 - 3
Newport Pagnell

FT
Coverage of the FA Cup Extra Preliminary Round Replays clash between Ilford and Newport Pagnell Town.

Form, Standings, Stats

Ilford

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Last Game: Newport Pagnell 3-3 Ilford
Saturday, August 3 at 3pm in FA Cup
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Newport Pagnell Town

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Last Game: Newport Pagnell 3-3 Ilford
Saturday, August 3 at 3pm in FA Cup
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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport Pagnell Town win with a probability of 58.6%. A win for Ilford had a probability of 22.39% and a draw had a probability of 19%.

The most likely scoreline for a Newport Pagnell Town win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (7.11%) and 0-2 (6.03%). The likeliest Ilford win was 2-1 (5.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.31%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Newport Pagnell Town would win this match.

Result
IlfordDrawNewport Pagnell Town
22.39% (-0.619 -0.62)19.01% (-0.264 -0.26)58.6% (0.879 0.88)
Both teams to score 69.98% (0.161 0.16)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
74.36% (0.536 0.54)25.63% (-0.541 -0.54)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
54.26% (0.692 0.69)45.74% (-0.696 -0.7)
Ilford Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.84% (-0.13200000000001 -0.13)23.15% (0.126 0.13)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
42.97% (-0.191 -0.19)57.03% (0.186 0.19)
Newport Pagnell Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
91.07% (0.36 0.36)8.92% (-0.3651 -0.37)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
69.51% (0.87 0.87)30.49% (-0.875 -0.88)
Score Analysis
    Ilford 22.39%
    Newport Pagnell Town 58.6%
    Draw 19.01%
IlfordDrawNewport Pagnell Town
2-1 @ 5.34% (-0.137 -0.14)
3-2 @ 3.15% (-0.04 -0.04)
1-0 @ 3.02% (-0.118 -0.12)
3-1 @ 2.61% (-0.077 -0.08)
2-0 @ 2.21% (-0.095 -0.09)
4-2 @ 1.15% (-0.018 -0.02)
3-0 @ 1.08% (-0.05 -0.05)
4-1 @ 0.95% (-0.032 -0.03)
4-3 @ 0.93% (0.001 0)
Other @ 1.94%
Total : 22.39%
1-1 @ 7.31% (-0.16 -0.16)
2-2 @ 6.46% (-0.055999999999999 -0.06)
3-3 @ 2.54% (0.011 0.01)
0-0 @ 2.07% (-0.072 -0.07)
Other @ 0.65%
Total : 19.01%
1-2 @ 8.83% (-0.042999999999999 -0.04)
1-3 @ 7.11% (0.084 0.08)
0-2 @ 6.03% (-0.0059999999999993 -0.01)
2-3 @ 5.2% (0.042 0.04)
0-1 @ 4.99% (-0.09 -0.09)
0-3 @ 4.86% (0.075 0.08)
1-4 @ 4.29% (0.121 0.12)
2-4 @ 3.14% (0.077 0.08)
0-4 @ 2.94% (0.093 0.09)
1-5 @ 2.08% (0.092 0.09)
3-4 @ 1.53% (0.032 0.03)
2-5 @ 1.52% (0.062 0.06)
0-5 @ 1.42% (0.067 0.07)
Other @ 4.66%
Total : 58.6%

Head to Head
Aug 3, 2024 3pm
Extra Preliminary Round
Newport Pagnell
3-3
Ilford