Euro 2020

European Championship | Group Stage

Jun 19, 2021 at 5pm UK

Allianz Arena

Portugal
2 - 4
Germany

Ronaldo (15'), Jota (67')

FT(HT: 1-2)

Dias (35' og.), Guerreiro (39' og.), Havertz (51'), Gosens (60')
Havertz (66'), Ginter (77')

Reaction

Germany manager Joachim Low pictured on June 2, 2021

Joachim Low refusing to get carried away despite impressive win

A 4-2 win over the reigning European champions has kept alive Germany's hopes of progressing from Group F.

Jun 19, 21:34

The Match

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Germany win with a probability of 40.25%. A win for Portugal had a probability of 33% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Germany win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.51%) and 0-2 (7.18%). The likeliest Portugal win was 1-0 (9.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.71%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Germany would win this match.

Result
Portugal	Draw	Germany
33%	26.75%	40.25%

Both teams to score 51.27%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

46.28%

53.72%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

24.79%

75.2%

Portugal Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.46%

30.53%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.24%

66.75%

Germany Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.8%

26.2%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.71%

61.29%

Score Analysis

Portugal 33%

Germany 40.25%

Draw 26.75%

Portugal	Draw	Germany
1-0 @ 9.49% 2-1 @ 7.54% 2-0 @ 5.63% 3-1 @ 2.98% 3-0 @ 2.23% 3-2 @ 2% Other @ 3.13% Total : 33%	1-1 @ 12.71% 0-0 @ 8% 2-2 @ 5.05% Other @ 0.99% Total : 26.75%	0-1 @ 10.71% 1-2 @ 8.51% 0-2 @ 7.18% 1-3 @ 3.8% 0-3 @ 3.2% 2-3 @ 2.26% 1-4 @ 1.27% 0-4 @ 1.07% Other @ 2.24% Total : 40.25%