Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Partizani Tirana win with a probability of 67.93%. A draw had a probability of 20.2% and a win for Marsaxlokk had a probability of 11.86%.
The most likely scoreline for a Partizani Tirana win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (13.75%) and 1-2 (9.31%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.45%), while for a Marsaxlokk win it was 1-0 (4.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Partizani Tirana would win this match.