UEFA Conference League

Conference League | Third Qualifying Round | 1st Leg

Aug 4, 2022 at 6pm UK

Åråsen Stadion

Lillestrom
1 - 3
Antwerp

(Royal Antwerp win 5-1 on aggregate)

Knudsen (45+3')
Fridjonsson (34'), Ibrahimaj (48')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Almeida (5'), Nainggolan (50', 86')
Janssen (62'), Gerkens (69'), Valencia (85')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa Conference League clash between Lillestrom and Royal Antwerp, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Royal Antwerp win with a probability of 40.88%. A win for Lillestrom had a probability of 37.33% and a draw had a probability of 21.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Royal Antwerp win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (5.03%) and 0-1 (4.9%). The likeliest Lillestrom win was 2-1 (7.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.69%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Royal Antwerp would win this match.

Result
Lillestrom	Draw	Royal Antwerp
37.33% ( 0.03)	21.78% ( -0.03)	40.88% ( -0)

Both teams to score 70.17% (

0.11)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

70.41% (

0.14)

29.59% (

-0.15)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

49.3% (

0.17)

50.69% (

-0.18)

Lillestrom Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.06% (

0.07)

16.94% (

-0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

52.98% (

0.13)

47.01% (

-0.14)

Royal Antwerp Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.48% (

0.06)

15.51% (

-0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

55.57% (

0.11)

44.42% (

-0.11)

Score Analysis

Lillestrom 37.33%

Royal Antwerp 40.88%

Draw 21.78%

Lillestrom	Draw	Royal Antwerp
2-1 @ 7.72% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 4.67% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 4.57% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 4.26% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 4.14% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 2.45% ( -0) 4-1 @ 2.03% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.89% ( 0.01) 4-3 @ 1.17% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 1.09% ( 0) Other @ 3.35% Total : 37.33%	1-1 @ 8.69% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 7.19% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 2.64% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 2.63% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.63% Total : 21.78%	1-2 @ 8.1% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 5.03% ( 0) 0-1 @ 4.9% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 4.56% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 4.47% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 2.83% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 2.34% ( 0.01) 2-4 @ 2.08% ( 0.01) 0-4 @ 1.32% 3-4 @ 1.23% ( 0.01) Other @ 4.01% Total : 40.88%