Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a HNK Rijeka win with a probability of 69.3%. A draw had a probability of 18.5% and a win for Dukagjini had a probability of 12.24%.
The most likely scoreline for a HNK Rijeka win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.95%) and 2-1 (9.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.77%), while for a Dukagjini win it was 0-1 (3.99%). The actual scoreline of 6-1 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that HNK Rijeka would win this match.