Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Shkupi win with a probability of 56.57%. A draw had a probability of 23.9% and a win for Hegelmann Litauen had a probability of 19.54%.
The most likely scoreline for a Shkupi win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.81%) and 1-2 (9.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.32%), while for a Hegelmann Litauen win it was 1-0 (6.64%). The actual scoreline of 0-5 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Shkupi would win this match.