UEFA Conference League

Conference League | First Qualifying Round | 2nd Leg

Jul 20, 2023 at 7.30pm UK

DG Arena

Arsenal Tivat
1 - 6
Alashkert

(Alashkert FC win 7-2 on aggregate)

Dordevic (58')
Mirkovic (60'), Manojlovic (74')

FT(HT: 0-2)

Agdon (40', 45+1', 48'), Racines (74'), Grigoryan (90+2'), Mensah (90+4')
Gareginyan (33')

Coverage of the Conference League First Qualifying Round clash between Arsenal Tivat and Alashkert FC.

Form, Standings, Stats

Arsenal Tivat

Last Game: Alashkert 1-1 Arsenal Tivat
Thursday, July 13 at 6pm in Europa Conference League

Alashkert FC

Last Game: Alashkert 1-1 Arsenal Tivat
Thursday, July 13 at 6pm in Europa Conference League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alashkert FC win with a probability of 68.45%. A draw had a probability of 20.7% and a win for Arsenal Tivat had a probability of 10.83%.

The most likely scoreline for an Alashkert FC win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (14.94%) and 0-3 (9.39%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.36%), while for an Arsenal Tivat win it was 1-0 (4.97%). The actual scoreline of 1-6 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Alashkert FC would win this match.

Result
Arsenal Tivat	Draw	Alashkert FC
10.83% ( -0.22)	20.73% ( -0.15)	68.45% ( 0.37)

Both teams to score 37.82% (

-0.28)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

44.98% (

0.04)

55.02% (

-0.03)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

23.71% (

0.03)

76.29% (

-0.03)

Arsenal Tivat Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

44.59% (

-0.4)

55.41% (

0.4)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

11.87% (

-0.24)

88.13% (

0.24)

Alashkert FC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.81% (

0.13)

15.19% (

-0.13)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

56.19% (

0.25)

43.81% (

-0.25)

Score Analysis

Arsenal Tivat 10.83%

Alashkert FC 68.44%

Draw 20.73%

Arsenal Tivat	Draw	Alashkert FC
1-0 @ 4.97% ( -0.07) 2-1 @ 2.76% ( -0.06) 2-0 @ 1.47% ( -0.04) Other @ 1.63% Total : 10.83%	1-1 @ 9.36% ( -0.09) 0-0 @ 8.42% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 2.61% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.35% Total : 20.73%	0-1 @ 15.86% ( 0.06) 0-2 @ 14.94% ( 0.11) 0-3 @ 9.39% ( 0.12) 1-2 @ 8.82% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 5.54% ( 0) 0-4 @ 4.43% ( 0.08) 1-4 @ 2.61% ( 0.01) 0-5 @ 1.67% ( 0.04) 2-3 @ 1.64% ( -0.02) 1-5 @ 0.99% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.55% Total : 68.44%