Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alashkert FC win with a probability of 37.9%. A win for Hamrun Spartans had a probability of 33.29% and a draw had a probability of 28.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an Alashkert FC win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.76%) and 2-0 (7.24%). The likeliest Hamrun Spartans win was 0-1 (11.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.33%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Alashkert FC in this match.